Fortuna’s Second Place Is Built on a Wobble
Fortuna Düsseldorf have ten points more than their chances suggest, with sharp finishing and leaky defending pulling their season in opposite directions.
“The table says second. The chances say eighth.” That is the blunt truth of Fortuna Düsseldorf’s Bundesliga season so far. After 27 games, Rolly Essende’s side have 48 points; the quality of those chances puts them on 37.7 expected points, a gap of 10.3.
Fortuna have scored 40 goals from chances worth 35.0 xG. That extra five goals is the work of clinical finishing. At the other end, they have conceded 25 from 34.3 xG allowed. The defence has given up 9.3 fewer goals than those chances would normally yield. That is no small stroke of fortune.
The contrast with the real table is stark. Borussia Dortmund are fourth on expected points with 47, while Fortuna’s 48 actual points put them third. Bayern München lead the actual table on 66 points; their expected-points total is 55.3. The numbers do not cancel what Fortuna have earned. They show how much their position depends on finishing above expectation and keeping opponents from cashing in.
The gap between performance and points remains enormous. Essende, in charge since June 2061, has a side that takes its chances and escapes the punishment its defending invites. That combination has carried them to third. It is a fierce advantage, but a fragile one.
The table will make that meeting look like a contest between the leaders and their closest challengers. The chance figures tell a more cautious story. Fortuna have earned their points; they have not earned quite so many of them.