Andrei Zaharia’s 14 goals leave 5.3 more than the chances suggested

Fourteen goals from 8.7 expected is the season’s neat little argument between finishing and fortune. Andrei Zaharia has outscored the chances he has had by 5.3 goals in the Romanian First League, a gap large enough to make every next finish feel like evidence for one side or the other.

The 34-year-old left winger has played 28 league games, with three of his 14 goals coming from penalties. He has taken 38 shots and put 23 on target; 37 per cent of his attempts have ended in goals. Those figures make the return look less like a handful of unlikely strikes and more like a sustained hot streak. Whether it is quite as sustainable is the part the arithmetic cannot settle.

Zaharia’s last league goal came on 8 March. There is no goal to add today, but his season’s tally still stands well above the expected return. Fourteen goals are a substantial contribution; 8.7 expected suggests the chances, in aggregate, offered something closer to nine. The remaining five-and-a-bit belong to the margins where a player’s precision and fortune are difficult to prise apart.

For CS Concordia Chiajna, this is not a new face finding his feet. Zaharia has spent his entire senior club career there: 645 club games and 141 goals from 2044/45 to 2063/64. His current league campaign has supplied 14 of them, with 3 penalties included in both totals. He is known as a player who gives the same effort each week, a useful quality when the debate is whether the numbers are exceptional or merely running hot.

At 37 per cent conversion, the case for skill is plain. So is the 5.3-goal surplus, which offers luck a seat at the table. The next run of chances will have the casting vote.