The 4-2-3-1 owns the sheet; the 4-3-3 owns the points
Across 476 Bundesliga team sheets this season, the most common system is not the one producing the best return.
A team sheet is a small rectangle with room for a large argument: across the Bundesliga this season, the 4-2-3-1 DM AM Wide has appeared 235 times, nearly half of all 476 sheets. Its share is 49 per cent. The system winning the points race is a different one altogether.
The 4-3-3 DM Wide has been used 102 times, or 21 per cent, and averages 1.49 points a game. That is 0.15 more than the 4-2-3-1’s 1.34, despite appearing on 133 fewer sheets. The gap is modest on any one afternoon; over a season of team sheets, it gives the less frequent shape the better return.
The 4-4-2 sits between them in both use and yield: 91 appearances, 19 per cent, and 1.41 points a game. Its usual users are 1. FC Köln, 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV. The 4-3-3 is the regular choice at Borussia Mönchengladbach, RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg. Meanwhile, eight clubs usually choose the dominant 4-2-3-1: 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt, FC Bayern München, FC St. Pauli, Fortuna Düsseldorf and Sport-Club Freiburg.
The remaining two systems are much rarer. Hertha Berlin and SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually use the 5-2-1-2 DM AM, which has appeared 35 times and returned 1.31 points a game. DSC Arminia Bielefeld’s 5-3-2 DM WB is the outlier: 13 appearances, three per cent of sheets, and 0.31 points a game.
The figures describe what clubs use and what those choices return; they do not tell us what happens within the shapes. But the season’s neatest tactical twist is plain enough: the Bundesliga’s default is the 4-2-3-1, while the 4-3-3 has made each outing count for more.