What will decide the derby between Rapid and Craiova?

A derby can tighten the air before a ball is kicked; this one begins with two clubs looking across at one another, separated by a point, and with an injury list that has altered the expected shape of both sides. Fotbal Club Rapid 1923 host U Craiova 1948 CS on 23 March in the Romanian First League, second against third. The narrowness of that arithmetic is plain. What it means for the table beyond their places is less so, but neither will mistake the value of taking the initiative against a direct rival.

They have scored 51 goals from chances worth 39.9 expected goals, a substantial return that speaks to finishing as well as opportunity. Doru Ciolacu has supplied four goals in his last five matches and remains the clearest threat; Adrian Cristea, likely to start in midfield, has also been creating chances.

The absence of right winger Alexandru Racolţa, sidelined with sprained ankle ligaments, removes a regular from Rapid’s expected 4-3-3. Julen Karanka is likely to take the right-sided role, with Matar Soumaré on the opposite flank. Karanka’s contest with Diego Vargas is one to watch: their recent average ratings are close, and the duel may test a Rapid attack that has been more productive than its underlying chances suggest. Rapid’s familiar system has been used in each of their last 12 matches.

Craiova are one point ahead, in second place, with 18 wins, six draws and seven defeats from 31 league games. They have gone three matches without defeat, including a 2-2 draw with FC CFR 1907 Cluj on 17 March. Their 71 goals from 67.2 expected goals suggest a more proportionate return in front of goal than Rapid’s, while 40 conceded against 31.2 expected points to a vulnerability that the home side will hope to expose.

Craiova’s expected 4-3-3 comes with significant absences. Andrew Cameron, who scored in the previous meeting, is out with a fractured toe; attacking midfielder Jai Coppinger and defensive midfielder Boban Kovač are also injured. Several likely starters are carrying tired legs, among them Martin Jakubov, Alexander Mair and Alexandru Radu. Jakubov has nevertheless been a source of danger, with a goal, an assist and four clear-cut chances created in his last five games. Rapid’s left winger Soumaré is likely to meet him on the flank.

Doru Ciolacu put Rapid ahead on 62 minutes before Cameron equalised 11 minutes later. The sequence offers no lasting verdict, only a reminder that neither team has found this rivalry easy to settle. On Sunday, with the points and the places so closely held, the smallest margin may once again be enough to change the conversation.