63 Points, One Summit: Athletico Madrid Face Vigo
Athletico Madrid welcome sixth-placed Vigo on Sunday with the Spanish First Division lead to protect and a narrow head-to-head history turning firmly their way.
They lead on 63 from 29 matches, with Barcelona one point behind, and cannot afford to treat a side in sixth as a provincial footnote. Vigo have 45 points from 30 games and arrive with two league matches unbeaten.
The table says Athletico are ahead; the underlying figures say their margin has been helped by fortune as well as quality. They have 63 points against 58.4 expected, while Vigo’s 45 are a striking 9.7 above their expected return. Vigo have conceded 26, against 35.8 expected goals against. In my day, the provinces travelled to the capital hoping to spoil a grand occasion; this Vigo side have reason to believe the numbers may give them a chance.
The recent meetings, however, belong to Athletico. They won 1-0 at Vigo on 4 November, Hüseyin Göktepe scoring, and beat them 2-0 at home last March. Vigo’s last league win over them came no later than the 1-1 draw of November 2062. Athletico have also gone three league games unbeaten since their defeat by Alavés on 24 February, and remain top despite that stumble.
José Henrique Arósio and Mario Cardozo are the home side’s lively threats, both producing goals and chances in recent games. His contest with likely left-back Mouhamed Sané looks a tempting one for the visitors; Athletico’s José Henrique Arósio against José Antonio Rojas is another battle that could shape the afternoon.
There are absences to manage. Athletico’s regular left-back Garoé Ortí is out with a twisted ankle, while Vigo are without Jaume Añón, a regular on the left, after he fractured his ribs. The expected shape for both is the familiar 4-2-3-1. Athletico’s last title came in 2062/63, but the old business of defending a crown starts with matches like this, not memories.