Ferrer turns 9.5 chances into 15 goals
Chelsea’s striker has scored 5.5 more English Premier Division goals than his chances suggest, leaving a familiar question over a remarkable return.
Can Pablo Ferrer keep scoring at a rate that makes 9.5 look like an underestimate? Chelsea’s striker has 15 English Premier Division goals from 25 games, against expected goals of 9.5: a surplus of 5.5, or more than half his expected total. One of the 15 was a penalty, counted in both figures.
The gap sits alongside 46 shots, 22 on target and a conversion rate of 33 per cent. The numbers say Ferrer has finished well beyond what those chances suggest. Whether that is skill held at a remarkable level or fortune waiting to turn is less settled.
His last league goal came on 1 May, so this is not a fresh burst built in the past fortnight. It is the accumulated work of a season in which the 24-year-old has made far more of his opportunities than expected. Ferrer is a striker who likes to place his finishes; the figures suggest the placement has been doing its share of the talking.
Chelsea’s broader season has already raised questions about what finishing can do to the arithmetic. A week ago, this column examined the champions’ points against the chances behind them. Ferrer gives that story an individual measure: 15 goals, 9.5 expected, and a difference that is large enough to matter without making the answer obvious. Chelsea were crowned champions on 5 April, and beat Manchester United 5-1 on Wednesday 14 May. Neither result changes Ferrer’s personal equation; both belong to a season in which the club’s finishing has been a recurring theme.
Chelsea’s next league fixture is against Watford on 18 May. The English FA Cup final against Queens Park Rangers follows on 24 May, while Chelsea are due to face Ponferrada in the UEFA Champions League on 31 May. Those are coming tests for the side, not evidence about what Ferrer will score in them. The preview of the United meeting can now be filed under finished business; the numbers around Ferrer remain live.
A model professional and fiercely ambitious, Ferrer is unlikely to mistake a surplus for a guarantee. He has 106 goals in 258 club games across seven clubs, but this season’s 15 are the matter at hand. His 33 per cent conversion is not a promise that the next shot goes in. It is simply the reason defenders will not welcome the next one.
Expected goals offer a baseline, not a verdict on the next finish. Ferrer has beaten that baseline by 5.5, with one penalty included, over 25 league appearances. Skill can persist; luck can leave without notice. The cleanest answer so far is 15.