17 Points from Safety: Dijon and Strasbourg Need a Rescue

17 points from safety: that is Dijon FCO’s deficit before Saturday’s visit from RC Strasbourg Alsace, a meeting between Ligue 1 Uber Eats’ bottom two with precious little room for comforting arithmetic. The possible extra sting for 16th is a play-off, though the recent pattern is hardly a promise of mercy.

Dijon are 18th on 17 points, Strasbourg 17th on 23. Dijon’s form reads LDLLW; Strasbourg’s LDLDL, with their latest defeat a 4-1 home loss to Olympique de Marseille on Sunday. Dijon have gone unbeaten in one league game since their last defeat, which is the sort of run that needs no grand label.

Dijon’s 15 points from 22 games sit below 23.3 expected; Strasbourg’s 19 from 25 are short of 28.8. Dijon have scored 16 against 21.4 expected goals, Strasbourg 30 against 31.7. They have not merely been unlucky, then. They have also made a season of it.

Dijon did beat Strasbourg 2-1 in the French Cup on 6 January, with Everson Romano and Zeus Tapia scoring before Mika Hautala replied. Strasbourg won the league meeting on 16 December by the same score, and also took the 2-0 meeting last May. The cup result offers Dijon a recent reason to believe; the league record offers Strasbourg a reason not to.

Dijon are expected to use their familiar 4-4-2, with Romano a possible outlet against Asier Ramos on Strasbourg’s left. The visitors are likely to keep their 5-2-3 DM Wide; Hautala, with three goals in his last four games, is their clearest threat. Dijon’s Christopher Vial has scored twice in his last four. Both teams need those numbers to become something more substantial than a preview’s hopeful paragraph.