Settle the Bundesliga’s second-place race

Can RB Leipzig turn the Bundesliga’s final fortnight into a sprint for second place? On 17 May they host Borussia Dortmund, who sit two points above them, with only two games left for Leipzig and one for Dortmund after this fixture. The stakes are clear; the margin for error is not.

Leipzig’s recent league form reads four wins in five, though their last defeat came at Mainz on 27 April. Dortmund arrive unbeaten in eight league games, with four wins in a row. The clubs have met three times since November: Dortmund won 2-1 in the league on 12 January and 1-0 in the DFB-Pokal on 26 February, while their November meeting in Leipzig ended 1-1. That cup tie was settled by Morad Hattab’s penalty in the 84th minute. Hattab returns to the club where he made 78 appearances and scored 38 goals in all competitions.

Both sides are likely to keep faith with familiar shapes: Leipzig’s 4-3-3 and Dortmund’s 4-2-3-1. Leipzig’s Albert Franco has scored three times in his last five games, but the aerial contest with Charles Sani may be a tougher route to goal; Sani has the height and reach advantage. At the other end, Sadio Keita has supplied three assists in five games, and his pace could test Leipzig right-back Roberto Robles.

Leipzig’s expected XI includes tired Robles and Jorge Novillo, while Dortmund have several tired or jaded starters, including Hattab’s likely replacement, Andreas Altenhöfer. Leipzig have scored fewer goals than their expected-goals total suggests; Dortmund, too, have taken fewer points than their chances imply. The numbers offer no guarantee, but both sides may feel they have left something on the table. For Leipzig’s supporters, this is a chance to draw level with a rival; for Dortmund, a chance to keep the place they have spent the season defending.