Fortuna’s Unbeaten Run Meets Hamburg’s Hard Lesson
Fourth-placed Fortuna Düsseldorf put a 13-game Bundesliga unbeaten run on the line against Hamburger SV, who arrive fifth after a 4-2 defeat by Bayern.
Fortuna Düsseldorf have earned their place near the top; the figures suggest they have had a good deal of help from fortune, too. On Saturday 17 May they face Hamburger SV.
Their 13-game unbeaten run has survived a string of draws, including a goalless one against 1. FC Nürnberg on 3 May. They beat 1. FC Köln 3-2 on Friday to keep the momentum going. HSV have won three of their last five league matches, but the latest result leaves little room for a quiet finish.
The gap between Fortuna’s actual and expected points is stark: 62 against 50.0. Their 53 goals also exceed their expected tally of 47.9, while they have conceded 30 against 40.4 expected. HSV’s 57 points sit closer to their 54.2 expected. Fortuna’s current standing is fourth; by expected points they are sixth. The table rewards results, not arithmetic, but arithmetic is worth keeping nearby.
The reverse fixture gives Fortuna a useful reference. Knakal, named player of the match that day, is unavailable with a torn calf muscle and is expected back about 25 July. His absence removes a regular from Fortuna’s right wing. HSV’s likely eleven has two changes from that meeting, with Zak Galbraith and Rafael Vázquez coming in.
Fortuna are likely to keep their 4-2-3-1; HSV have used a 4-4-2 in each of their last 12 games. Aviad Biton, with two goals in his last five, faces left-back Juan Carlos Gatti. At the other end, HSV’s Neizan Pestano has scored three in five. The old result favours Fortuna. Sunday’s will decide whether the run does, too.