Júnior has 11 goals from 5.9 expected — but the margin may not last
Chelsea’s right winger has scored nearly twice as often as his chances suggest, though the gap between finishing and expectation is not a promise of more.
27 shots on target, 11 league goals. Júnior’s season is an argument made in the space between those two figures: the Chelsea right winger has turned 45 shots into 11 goals in 19 English Premier Division games, scoring 5.1 more than his expected total of 5.9.
That is a conversion rate of 24 per cent. The comparison is less flattering to the chances than it is to the finishing: Júnior has scored almost twice as many times as the model expected. Whether that is a measure of skill, a hot streak, or some combination is the useful question. The numbers do not yet supply an answer.
His last league goal came on 19 January. The current tally therefore rests on work done before that date, rather than a fresh run of scoring this week. There is no need to mistake a season’s surplus for a current streak. Eleven goals remain eleven goals, however, and 5.1 above expectation is a substantial difference to carry into the last stretch of a campaign.
Júnior, 32, has been at Chelsea since joining from Atlético Mineiro on a free transfer in 2050. He has 368 league appearances and 180 league goals for the club, and 774 appearances and 371 goals in all competitions. Those are long-term figures, built over years. The 5.1-goal margin is a much narrower claim: that this season, in this league, he has finished above the chances he has had.
They beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 on Wednesday, then won the Arsenal derby 3-0 today. Júnior’s goal figures concern the English Premier Division, not the European tie, and do not make a prediction for it.
A player who has spent so long at one club can make an outlier look like routine. But 11 from 5.9 is not routine arithmetic. It may reflect the quality of a finisher able to place his shots; it may also be a margin that narrows when the next chances arrive. The 19 January date is a reminder that the season’s total and the present moment are not quite the same thing.
For now, Chelsea have a right winger whose 11 goals have come from chances valued at 5.9. The most revealing number may be the one still missing: what he does with the next shot.