Perugia’s Chance Deficit Deepens

Perugia’s gap between what their chances suggest and what the table says has widened again. With 34 games played in the Italian Serie A, they have 26 points against an expected 41.7: a deficit of 15.7, or almost 16 points. They stand 19th in the table, while the expected-points ranking puts them 14th.

The chief failure is in front of goal. Perugia have scored 22 times from chances worth 32.9 expected goals, underperforming that measure by 10.9 goals. The defence has been closer to its expected level: opponents have scored 42 from 40.4 expected goals, a difference of 1.6 against Perugia. The numbers point much more firmly to wasted opportunities than to a defence routinely allowing chances to become goals.

That is a sharper shortfall than the 13.2-point gap we reported on 31 March. It is not a rescue already secured by better underlying numbers: expected points are a measure of the chances created and conceded, not points to add to the table. Perugia remain 19th, and the discrepancy offers explanation, not protection.

Marcelo Soria has been in charge since 18 November 2063. His side’s season has produced enough quality in the chances to sit nearer the middle of the table, but the finishing has not followed. In a league where the leading sides have turned their campaigns into substantial points totals, Perugia’s missed return is not an abstract statistical quirk. It is the difference between their actual position and the one their chance quality indicates.

The defensive figures offer little excuse to shift the blame elsewhere. Perugia have conceded only marginally more than the chances against them would predict; in attack, the shortfall is stark. Until that changes, the table will keep telling the harsher story.