Derby déjà vu: Nürnberg eye another Bayern scalp

Derbies do not care for league tables. They care who stands their ground when the old rivals meet, and 1. FC Nürnberg have already shown this season they can make FC Bayern München blink. The next test comes on 26 April, with Bayern top of the Bundesliga and Nürnberg tenth.

Nürnberg won 1-0 in Munich on 7 December, Ahmet Güner scoring the only goal. That remains Bayern’s most recent league defeat. They have since gone 15 matches unbeaten, and arrive with 73 points from 30 games, 35 more than their hosts. Nürnberg’s latest league form reads WWLWW; Bayern have won four and drawn one of their last five.

The home side have climbed to 38 points and sit clear of the bottom two, the relegation zone. Their recent derby work offers encouragement: on Friday, they beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0. But the margin for error against a side so relentlessly productive is thin. Bayern have 73 points against an expected 61.2, while Nürnberg’s 38 is close to the 39.4 their chances suggest. The leaders have made more of less; Nürnberg have not quite got the return their play warranted.

Bayern’s expected line-up has a different shape from the 4-4-2 that lost in December: a 4-2-3-1, with Teodoro Brugué behind Niccolò De Giglio. Brugué and left winger José Luís Hernández both arrive in strong form. Hernández’s duel with likely right-back Grégory Schultz could be especially testing; the Bayern winger has the edge in dribbling, though the outcome is still to be settled on the pitch.

Bayern have concerns. Striker Sil Vlietstra is injured, as are Leanderson and Cornel Iosif, while Hernández is tired. Nürnberg’s expected starters also carry tired legs, with Gerardo Orozco particularly flagged. The hosts will need Junior Carter, their lively left midfielder, to bring his recent spark again.

Bayern beat Nürnberg 2-0 in the DFB-Pokal in October, but the league meeting in December belongs to the hosts. Now comes another chapter in a derby that has already refused to follow the script.