A Derby with No Room for Error

This is a semi-final in which Borussia Dortmund cannot afford another narrow defeat to FC Bayern München. The German rivals meet in the DFB-Pokal on 23 April, with Bayern having won two of the last three meetings and drawn the other. The latest was on 2 February, when Dortmund lost 1-0 to Bayern in the Bundesliga, with Teodoro Brugué scoring the only goal.

That result offers a blunt measure of the task: Dortmund must find a way through a familiar opponent, not merely survive the occasion. Bayern also won 1-0 at home in March 2063; the September meeting ended 1-1. Now the next meeting is a cup semi-final, where there is no league table to soften the consequence of a mistake.

Both sides are expected to use a 4-2-3-1. Dortmund have kept that shape in each of their last 12 games, and their likely XI includes Sadio Keita on the left and Marvin Kiala on the right. Keita has a goal in his last four games and has made five clear-cut chances in that spell. Kiala has a goal and an assist across his last five. Bayern’s likely side also features its recent threat: striker Sil Vlietstra has one goal and five assists in his last five games, while José Luís Hernández has contributed a goal and an assist from the left in his last four.

Bayern will be without Leanderson, a regular on the right, who is recovering from a pulled calf muscle, and Enzo, who has a hamstring strain and is expected back around 6 May. Emeka Omotayo is expected to take Enzo’s place. Dortmund’s expected XI has Sadio Keita where Andreas Altenhöfer started the February meeting; Altenhöfer is fit, but has been on the bench in each of Dortmund’s last four games. The expected teams are not announcements, and there is time for that picture to change.

Jules Luvovadio and Ikechukwu Okeke are both described as tired, while several others, including Kiala and right-back Antonius Maertens, are short of full condition. Bayern’s expected XI has fewer such flags, though Hernández is also tired. No injury should be inferred from those figures; they are simply part of the preparation Dortmund have to manage.

The wide contests could decide how much room either side finds. Keita’s pace against Bayern right-back Patrick Wolfgang Brunnhübner is one for Dortmund to exploit; on the other flank, Kiala faces Vincenzo Cancelli. Bayern’s Niccolò De Giglio meets Dortmund left-back Đorđe Petrović, whose tackling edge makes that duel less straightforward. Brugué, the scorer in February, returns in the expected Bayern XI. Dortmund’s Benoît Riviere also knows the opposition, having played for Bayern in 2050/51 and 2051/52.

Dortmund have a chance to put February behind them and reach the final; Bayern arrive with the recent results to make that difficult. Dortmund’s next test after the semi-final is already on the calendar: a UEFA Champions League tie at Ponferrada on 30 April. First comes the derby, and the price of getting it wrong is immediate.