Liverpool face Chelsea with a title race on the line

For a generation, this fixture has been a foregone conclusion. Chelsea have won the league forty-one years in a row, and Liverpool have not lifted it since 2019/20. When the sides met in October, Chelsea won 3-0 in the Champions League, and the gap in class looked as wide as it ever has. Yet when Liverpool return on 22 December, the arithmetic of the season gives the game a sharper edge than the history books would suggest.

Chelsea sit first, unbeaten in sixteen league games, with 46 points from 16 matches. Liverpool are second, sixteen points behind, but their position is not the story; it is the fragility beneath it. Chelsea have scored 52 goals from 42.9 expected, and their opponents have scored 8 from 7.7 expected. The champions are outperforming their numbers at both ends, but that is the habit of great sides. Liverpool, by contrast, have scored only 15 goals from 18.4 expected, and their 30 points from 16 games is above their 26.2 expected. The table says Liverpool are the nearest challenger; the underlying numbers say they have been riding their luck as much as anyone.

Injuries shape both selections. Chelsea are without Nacho Valera, their leading scorer, with a torn hamstring, as well as Jairzinho and Ibrahim Ramadan. Marcelo Formicola is expected to lead the line in his absence. Liverpool's problems are just as acute: Edmilson Dias, Patrick Onana and Conall Beck are all ruled out, and Eddie Melia, Matt Allen and others are expected to come in. The absence of Onana, in particular, removes a goalkeeper who has been a fixture for years, replaced by a man who spent a decade at Chelsea without ever making a league start.

The old boys' stories run deep. Eddie Melia, Sikiru Isa and Matt Allen all spent years at Chelsea without breaking through, and all are expected to start for Liverpool. For Melia, the game is a chance to show his former employers what they missed; for Chelsea, the presence of so many former academy players in the opposition is a reminder of the talent they have let go.

Chelsea's expected line-up is familiar: a 4-3-3 DM Wide with Júnior and Lionel Messi on the wings, and Formicola through the middle. Júnior is tired, with his condition down to 73 per cent, and Francisco Pardal is not much fresher. Liverpool's expected line-up is the same shape, but the legs are heavier: Eneko Sanz, Makis Sotiriou, Francisco Montiel, Edgardo Pérez, Edmilson Dias, Sikiru Isa, Roberto Ştefănescu and Uebert are all carrying fatigue, and several are below 75 per cent condition.

The key duels are on the flanks. Júnior's pace and dribbling will test Sam Lowson, whose tackling is solid but whose speed is not. On the other side, Lionel Messi's dribbling against Roberto Ştefănescu's tackling has the potential to decide the game. The last meeting between these sides ended 3-0 to Chelsea, with Valera, Jassem Abdulla and Billy Laing scoring. Valera is injured now, but Abdulla and Laing are expected to start.

Liverpool's record against 4-3-3 DM Wide teams is poor: one win, three draws and four defeats in eight games. Chelsea's record with their expected formation is formidable: 17 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 19 games. The numbers point one way, as they have for four decades. But this is a derby, and the old cliché about form going out of the window has never felt more apt than at Christmas, with a title race that is not yet over.