The Shape That Pays
One shape has carried the Spanish First Division this season, and it is not the one the touchline philosophers would have you believe.
The 4-2-3-1 DM AM Wide is the division's money-maker. Across 258 team sheets in the Spanish First Division, it appeared 117 times, 45%, and returned 1.5 points a game. The 4-3-3 DM Wide, close behind on usage at 104 appearances and 40%, returns 1.35. The gap is a tenth of a point a game, which over a season is the difference between a good spring and a nervous one.
Eight clubs list it as their usual shape: Athletico Madrid, Barcelona, Leganés, Levante, Oviedo, Ponferrada, Real Betis and Valencia. That is a third of the division working from the same page, give or take the handwriting. "We know the shape, we know where the ball goes," one of them might say, and the table would agree with the arithmetic.
The 4-3-3 DM Wide counters with numbers rather than novelty: C. Leonesa, Espanyol, Getafe, Girona, Real Madrid FC, Real Sociedad, Vallecano and Villarreal. Eight clubs again, and a return that would win plenty of leagues in a quieter year.
Then there is the 4-4-2, the old reliable that is neither old nor reliable this season. Thirty-three uses, 13%, and 0.91 points a game. A. Bilbao, Alavés and Sevilla keep the faith. Faith is the word; the figures are less devotional.
The 5-3-2 DM WB has been sighted four times, 2%, and filed under curiosity. Nobody's usual shape, nobody's pension.
A tenth of a point is not a revolution. But it is a habit, and habits harden between November and May. The division has chosen its default, and the default is paying.