Seven points clear of what the numbers say
Chelsea sit top of the table with 55 points from 19 games, but their underlying numbers tell a different story.
The final whistle had long gone at Watford, but the away end still bounced. Chelsea had just won 3-0, and the travelling support sang into the winter night. The result was familiar; the numbers behind it were not.
After 19 games, Chelsea have 55 points, seven clear of their expected total of 47.8. They have scored 65 goals from chances worth 50.6, a finishing overperformance of 14.4. At the other end, they have conceded nine from an expected 9.5. The gap is not defensive; it is clinical.
"We take our chances," said one fan, wrapped in a blue scarf, as the team coach pulled away. "People say it's luck. It's not. It's what this club does."
The league table agrees. Chelsea lead the English Premier Division, and they also lead the expected points table. Liverpool, second on expected points with 33.1, have 36 actual points. Southampton and Rotherham United are close behind. Arsenal, fifth on expected points with 28.8, have only 22.
Calin Dimario, in charge since 2022, has built a side that wins games. The question is whether the finishing is sustainable. The underlying numbers suggest a correction may come. The results suggest otherwise.
Chelsea's next league test is at Rotherham on 5 January. The Millers are fourth on expected points but have overachieved less. The champions will be expected to win. They usually do.
The fans will sing. The goals will come. The numbers will keep their quiet account.