Hoffenheim's numbers flatter, the table does not
Hoffenheim have the sixth-best chances in the Bundesliga and the seventh-worst return: seven points from ten games, 8.4 fewer than their play has earned.
Seven points. Ten games. And 15.4 expected. That gap of 8.4 is the story of Hoffenheim's autumn, and it is not a story about bad luck alone.
Olivier Mathieu has been in charge since June 2061. His side sits 15th. On the chances they have made and allowed, they should be sixth. Bayern lead that reckoning with 23.4, Dortmund follow on 21.8, Leipzig on 18.5, Wolfsburg on 17.7, Hamburg on 17.1. Hoffenheim's 15.4 belongs in that company. Their seven points do not.
Look at both ends. From 13.3 xG they have scored seven, 6.3 goals short of what the chances were worth. That is wasteful finishing, and it is where the points have gone. At the back they have conceded 15 from 11.9 xG against, 3.1 more than they should have. A leaky defence on top of blunt attacking is how a decent team ends up in the relegation fight.
Fix one end and the climb starts. Fix both and Hoffenheim are a top-six side by Christmas. The play is there. The return is not.
"We know what we can do," is the word from the dressing room. "The table does not show it yet." Fair enough. But tables are built from goals, not from chances, and nobody hands out points for xG in May.
Mathieu has had two and a half years to shape this team. The shape is working. The finishing is not. That is a coaching job now, and a nerve job, and the Ruhr would tell you the same: graft beats promise every week.
Hoffenheim have the chances of a side pushing for Europe. They have the points of a side looking down. One of those numbers has to give.