Eight goals: what does a 0.02 expected-goals night feel like?
Ponferrada turned 26 shots into eight goals and Dinamo 1948 SA turned two into none, which is roughly the difference between a flood and a leaky tap.
Two shots. That is the whole of Dinamo 1948 SA's attacking output on the night, and those two shots carried an expected-goals value of 0.02 between them. At the other end, Ponferrada took 26, put 16 on target, hit the woodwork once and generated 5.19 expected goals. They scored eight. The conversion rate ran at roughly double the quality of the chances, which is the sort of evening a defence remembers for a while.
Diego, playing from the deep midfield slot, finished with three goals and an assist, seven shots, six on target, five dribbles and 13.5 kilometres. Götz Rosen matched his rating without scoring: three assists, three key passes, eight dribbles. Federico Rocchi had two goals and an assist before coming off on 58 minutes; Fran Belmonte came on in his place and scored twice himself. Gino van Velzen, meanwhile, took three shots worth 0.67 expected goals and got nothing, which is the only Ponferrada account that stayed in the red.
Dinamo's shape was not their usual one, and it showed. They lost Cristian Marín and Tarald Lydersen to injury before kick-off, started two new signings in midfield, and finished the evening in something else again. Sixteen fouls and one booking tell you how the night went for them. "You chase it and it keeps moving," Adriano Dias might have said, and the numbers agree: 34% of the ball, 248 passes completed to Ponferrada's 471.
The flanks did their share. Javier Mata and Gérson, paired on the left, have now played four games together; Ponferrada average 1.8 goals in them and 1.5 against. The three games without one of the pair average 0.7 and 1.0. One match is one match, but the direction is consistent.
Eight is a lot. Two shots is fewer.