Villarreal’s Points Defy the Chances
Third in the Spanish First Division, Villarreal have collected 14.4 more points than their chances suggest, with sharp finishing and stubborn defending both contributing.
How can a side sit third while the chances it creates and concedes point to eighth?
The gap is 14.4 points, a remarkable cushion built at both ends. Villarreal have scored 47 goals from chances worth 40.4 expected goals, while conceding only 26 from 34.3 expected goals against. Their finishing has brought 6.6 goals above expectation; their defending has kept out 8.3 more than the chances allowed would suggest.
That is no mere quirk of one afternoon. In April, when Villarreal had played 31 games, we wrote of a 12.6-point overperformance as they held third. In my day, we trusted what a team did in front of us, though even an old hand must admit that such a gulf between chances and points commands attention.
The table of expected points puts Villarreal eighth on 49.6. Above them there are Girona on 57.0, Real Sociedad on 56.3, Real Madrid FC on 54.9 and Ponferrada on 54.1; the actual standings tell a different tale. Athletico Madrid lead the expected-points measure on 69.0, with Barcelona next on 60.0, while Girona are third on 57.0. Villarreal, meanwhile, have turned their own chances into goals more often than the figures anticipated and have been hard to punish when opponents find openings.
But this is a league campaign, and Villarreal’s third place owes much to the finishing and defending that have repeatedly bent the numbers their way.