“16 from 10.3”

Expected goals: 10.3. Actual goals: 16. Ronaldinho has finished 5.7 above expectation in the Spanish First Division, where Real Madrid FC’s striker has scored twice from penalties and 14 times without them.

The 33-year-old has played 29 league games, taken 41 shots and put 25 on target. That is a 39 per cent conversion rate: rather more than the chances, by their measure, have promised. His latest league goal came on 25 April. The tally makes a case for skill; the gap leaves room for the old suspicion that a hot streak eventually cools.

There is no need to pretend the numbers settle it. A player who puts a high share of his attempts on target has made the goalkeeper work, and Ronaldinho’s 16 goals are not a statistical mirage. But 5.7 goals beyond expectation is a useful cushion for the finishing to give back. Whether he can keep converting at this rate is the part the arithmetic cannot answer in advance.

Real Madrid’s league fixture away to Sevilla on Friday offered no result to measure against Ronaldinho’s numbers. Ronaldinho’s last league goal came on 25 April. Two results, two different problems. Only one concerns the conversion column.

His wider career stands at 380 goals in 735 club games. The current season’s 16 are a substantial share of that work, and the excess over expectation is the story, not a verdict on whether the finishing is repeatable.

For now, the question is neatly priced: 5.7 goals of skill, luck, or some portion of each. The only certain total is 16.