Bayern Have 63 Points. Should Their Luck Count for Ten?

Bayern have the points; Dortmund have the better case. After 26 Bundesliga games, FC Bayern München sit first with 63 points, 10.1 above the 52.9 expected from the quality of chances created and conceded. Borussia Dortmund top the expected-points table on 55.1, despite having 47 actual points. That is the gap between a table and the football beneath it.

Bayern have scored 47 goals from chances worth 43.8 expected goals. Their finishing has added 3.2 goals above expectation: sharp work in front of goal, not a statistical mirage. At the other end, they have conceded 11 from 16.7 xG against. The defence has allowed chances that, on average, should have brought more punishment. Bayern’s goalkeeping and the other side’s waste have helped turn that into a remarkably modest total.

The combination explains the extra points. It also warns against mistaking the current table for a measure of who has controlled the season best. Leipzig are third on expected points, 50.5, but have 47 actual points. Hamburg follow on 44.3 expected and 46 actual; Wolfsburg have 42.7 expected and 44 actual, while Hertha’s 43 points exceed their 38.5 expected.

They have won seven Bundesliga games in a row, a run that has carried them to the summit. That defeat is not a Bundesliga statistic. It is, however, a reminder that the scoreline can be unforgiving in either direction.

For now, Iñigo Mateo’s side are first, and the points are real. So is the evidence that their rivals have had the stronger chances. Bayern’s finishing has earned its share. Their defence has made the rest possible. Keep taking the points, and the argument can wait.