Perugia and Bari brace for a survival scrap
Separated only by the relegation line, the sides meet on Sunday with 11 games left and little room for another missed chance.
“There is no room to admire the problem now.” That is the blunt logic for Perugia and Bari before Sunday’s Italian Serie A meeting: both have 21 points from 27 games, with Perugia 17th and Bari 18th, level with safety but sitting in the relegation zone. The bottom three go down; 11 games remain.
They have scored 15 goals from chances worth 25.0 expected goals and taken 21 points when their chances suggest 30.8. They are 17th in reality, 15th on expected points. The same discrepancy explains why this fixture feels so unforgiving: another defeat could undo the small gains of their recent form.
Their 21 points are slightly above their expected tally of 19.9; their 18 goals from 16.5 expected goals suggest they have been more efficient in front of goal than Perugia. Yet 37 conceded, against 45.9 expected, offers little comfort. Gennaro Nardelli is out with a broken upper arm, a notable absence at right-back after 10 starts.
Both sides are expected to use a 4-3-3 DM Wide, as they have in each of their last 12 games. Bari won the first meeting 2-1 on 28 October, with Sergio Pocoví and Alessandro Albamonte scoring before Gabriel Żwir replied late. At the other end, Perugia’s Carlos Monteiro has three goals in his last five matches and could target Francesco Esposito, whose recent ratings have dipped.
Davide Intini returns to Perugia after 174 appearances there, while Bruno Renzi once played for Bari. Those old ties are secondary now. Perugia need to turn chances into points; Bari need to prove their latest draw was more than a pause in the slide.