11 goals from 4.2 expected: how long can Héctor’s run last?
U Craiova 1948 CS’s Héctor has scored 11 times in the Romanian First League, 6.8 above his expected-goals total, leaving skill and fortune sharing the same column.
Can Héctor keep finishing at a rate the chances do not predict? The U Craiova 1948 CS right winger has 11 Romanian First League goals from 4.2 expected, a difference of 6.8. The gap is not a rounding error; it is the headline of his season.
Across 22 league games, Héctor has taken 34 shots and put 19 on target. Thirty-two per cent of those attempts have gone in. That is the shape of a hot streak with enough precision to make luck work hard for its billing, and enough overperformance to keep the question open.
His most recent league goal came on 8 February. The figures published today therefore describe a return accumulated over the season, not a burst that has been extended by a goal this afternoon. For now, the 11 remain where they are: a tally nearly three times the expected-goals figure, and a margin of 6.8 that no amount of careful phrasing can make small.
Héctor has been at U Craiova 1948 CS since 2055, and has scored 78 goals in 324 appearances for the club. He is a familiar face in a side with a long history of its own; still, this season’s finishing gives him a particular kind of prominence. A winger who often looks to move the ball on has instead supplied a league return that demands the last touch of the conversation.
Skill can turn good chances into goals. A run of this size also leaves room for the numbers to tug back. Until they do, Héctor’s season sits in the uncomfortable space between repeatable craft and fortune on borrowed time.