Is the 4-2-3-1 now Spanish football's surest bet?

"We just keep it simple and let the system do the work," a Valencia player said after another win in their usual shape. Simple is working: the 4-2-3-1 DM AM Wide has been used 146 times this season, more than any other setup, and it is winning 1.47 points a game.

That is not just the most common system; it is the most profitable. The 4-3-3 DM Wide, seen 135 times, brings 1.33 points a game. The 4-4-2, a distant third on 33 uses, is scraping along at 0.91. The 5-3-2 DM WB has appeared four times, barely enough to count.

Eight clubs have made the 4-2-3-1 their home: Athletico Madrid, Barcelona, Leganés, Levante, Oviedo, Ponferrada, Real Betis and Valencia. The 4-3-3 has its own loyalists in C. Leonesa, Espanyol, Getafe, Girona, Real Madrid FC, Real Sociedad, Vallecano and Villarreal. A. Bilbao, Alavés and Sevilla are the ones sticking with a 4-4-2.

The gap is stark. The 4-2-3-1 is winning 0.14 points a game more than the 4-3-3, and over a 38-game season that is five points. Five points can be the difference between Europe and mid-table, or mid-table and a relegation scrap.

The 4-4-2's 0.91 points a game is a warning sign. Over a season, that is 34.6 points, often not enough to stay up. But the three clubs using it are not budging.

The 4-2-3-1 has been used in 46% of the 318 team sheets read. The 4-3-3 is at 42%. The rest is a niche. The top flight is a two-system league, but one of them is pulling ahead where it matters: on the scoresheet and in the table.