Hoffenheim -7: the numbers say they should be tenth

Football has always had a soft spot for the unlucky. The team that hits the woodwork three times, the striker who cannot buy a goal, the keeper who lets in a freak deflection. But when the numbers keep saying one thing and the table says another, it is worth asking whether we are watching misfortune or something more structural.

TSG Hoffenheim are the Bundesliga's great contradiction this season. After 14 matches they have 11 points, which puts them 16th and looking over their shoulders. Yet the chances they have created and conceded across those games point to a side that should have 18.3 points. That would place them tenth — comfortably mid-table, a world away from the relegation scrap they are currently in.

The gap of 7.3 points between what they have and what their play has earned is the largest negative variance in the league. No other side is underperforming their expected points by anything close.

So where does it go wrong? The finishing has been wasteful. Hoffenheim have scored 12 goals from chances worth 15.6 expected goals. That shortfall of 3.6 goals is not just bad luck; it is a pattern of missed chances, poor decisions in the box, and perhaps a lack of composure when it matters. Strikers are paid to put away the kind of opportunities Hoffenheim are creating, and so far they are not doing it often enough.

The defending tells a similar story. They have conceded 21 goals from an expected 18.0. In other words, opponents are scoring more than the quality of chances they create against Hoffenheim would suggest. That is a sign of a goalkeeper underperforming, defenders making individual errors, or a team that switches off at key moments. Conceding three goals more than expected over 14 games might not sound like much, but in a tight league it is the difference between safety and danger.

There is a wider context here. The top of the expected points table is no surprise: Bayern München lead with 29.5 expected points from 32 actual, Dortmund have 27.4 from 26, and RB Leipzig 25.6 from 24. Those clubs are where they are because they finish their chances and defend their box. Hoffenheim, by contrast, are the league's great underachievers.

What makes it more frustrating for supporters is that this is not a new story. A month ago, after ten games, the numbers already showed Hoffenheim should have had around 15.4 points — 8.4 more than their actual seven. Since then, little has changed. They have continued to create enough to win games and continued to lose them.

Manager Olivier Mathieu, in charge since the summer of 2061, must be tearing his hair out. He has built a side that, on the balance of chances, belongs in the top half. But football is not played on spreadsheets. The table does not care for expected goals. It cares only for results.

The question now is whether Hoffenheim can turn their underlying numbers into points before it is too late. The Bundesliga is unforgiving, and a team that keeps underperforming its chances will eventually stop getting those chances. Confidence erodes, pressure builds, and what looked like bad luck becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

For now, Hoffenheim can point to the numbers and claim they are better than their position suggests. They would be right. But they need to start proving it on the pitch, because the only table that matters is the one that says 16th.