Pladevall returns to Leipzig with Liverpool running on fumes
Ten days out from the Champions League meeting, Robert Pladevall's return to RB Leipzig is framed by tired legs, a fractured wrist and a winger everyone wants.
Robert Pladevall has spent four years building RB Leipzig, and on 11 December he walks back through the door with Liverpool. The fixture computer has a sense of humour: his new side face his old one, and both squads are running on empty.
The numbers tell the story of two teams that have not stopped. Leipzig have played 12 games in their 4-3-3 DM Wide shape this season, Liverpool the same. The hosts' expected line-up shows six players tired or short of condition as of 1 December; the visitors have five. Hamza De Groote, Leipzig's left winger, is at 83% condition. Liverpool's Matt Allen is at 85%, Edmilson Dias at 84% and tired. Neither manager can afford to wrap his stars in cotton wool, not with a Champions League night in Saxony on the horizon.
The last time these sides met, in March 2061, Leipzig won a penalty shoot-out after a goalless 180 minutes. Liverpool took the first leg 1-0 at Anfield, but the Red Bulls edged through. Now the stakes are different: a group-stage meeting with both clubs needing points, though the exact arithmetic is not yet clear.
Leipzig's danger men are familiar to Pladevall. De Groote has two goals and an assist in his last five games, and Patxi Ríos has been quietly influential from midfield. But the home side's goalkeeper, Carlos Alexandre, has been out of form, averaging 6.5 over the same stretch. Liverpool's Conall Beck, the left winger with a goal and two assists in his last five, is the visitors' main threat, and Sikiru Isa has been the visitors' best centre-back with a 7.44 average rating.
There is a subplot in the transfer market. Al-Hilal and Ponferrada are both interested in Beck, and the speculation will not go away. Pladevall knows all about Leipzig's desire to keep their best players; he built that culture himself.
The key duel may be on Leipzig's right, where Jeferson Ortega, if fit, faces Sam Lowson. Ortega has pace and dribbling to trouble the Liverpool left-back, but he is carrying a knock and his condition is the lowest of any expected starter. On the other flank, De Groote against Roberto Ştefănescu looks more even.
Pladevall's return is the story, but the tired legs may decide it. Leipzig's record against 4-3-3 DM Wide sides is solid: five games, two wins, two draws, one defeat. Liverpool's record against the same shape is poor: seven games, one win, two draws, four defeats, just 0.71 points per game. That is the number that matters most, and it suggests the visitors will need to find something extra.
The last meeting between these clubs in Leipzig was a 2-1 Liverpool win in 2047, but that was a different generation. This time, the Red Bulls are the ones with the recent European pedigree, and Pladevall knows exactly what it takes to win there.