"The orchestra is tired": Napoli's left flank meets its match
Napoli's grand opera of a left flank faces a Rotherham side who have never lost to a 4-4-2, and both benches are running on empty.
On paper this is a coronation. Napoli, with Rubén Montes and Donaldo Meschini singing together down the left, have been the most lyrical thing in Italy. In practice, on the eve of a Champions League night, the whole cast is hoarse.
Look at the fitness sheet and weep. Basile Pirson tired. Stéphane Assélé tired. Alejandro Puig tired. Selçuk Yildiz tired. This is not a squad arriving at a European night refreshed; it is a squad dragging itself there. And Rammy Karagula, Franco Cotrina and Andrea Iachini are not available at all, so the rotation is not a choice but a sentence.
Rotherham do not arrive in much better shape, and I say that with respect for what they have built. Marco Beretta, Maxime Cazenave, Santiago Espíndola and Daudé Verdonk are all carrying tired legs; Verdonk is at 77%, Kemal Aydın at 84%, Manuel Miranda at 81%. Tony Konneh, who once wore Napoli's shirt, misses out with a tight thigh. The old boy will not get his evening.
But here is the number that should worry the San Paolo faithful: Rotherham's record against a 4-4-2 reads six games, five wins, one draw, none lost. Against Napoli's expected shape they have scored seventeen and conceded five. Napoli, against the 4-2-3-1 that Rotherham will bring, have four games, two wins, one draw, one defeat, four goals for and five against. The pattern is not subtle.
The duels will decide it. Miranda, with pace 16, acceleration 17 and dribbling 18, against Meschini's tackling of 13, is a fire alarm waiting to ring. And in the air, Pirson's heading of 13 and jumping reach of 10 against Verdonk's 16 and 15 is not a battle; it is a mismatch.
Napoli need Montes, who averages 7.31 and has made four clear-cut chances in his last five, to find Reginaldo, scorer of goals and averaging 7.6 across his last four. Rotherham need Miranda, 8.27 over three games, to keep tormenting full-backs.
My verdict? The tired team with the better shape wins nothing for free. But a Champions League night in Naples does strange things to tired legs. I am picking the draw, and I am not happy about it.