Athletico's Lead Meets Real's Need in the Derby
The league leaders, unbeaten at home, face a Real Madrid side without a win in five and with old boy Rıdvan Baran returning to the club where he made his name.
Athletico Madrid have spent the autumn building a lead that looks commanding; Real Madrid have spent it slipping to fifth, without a win in five. The table says first against fifth, 34 points against 22, but the derby has a way of flattening such distinctions. Athletico's expected points tally of 29.2 suggests they have ridden their luck a little; Real's 22.6 against 19 actual points suggests they have wasted chances. Something has to give.
Athletico are without Axl Keutgen, Bocar Ricciulli and Javier Machado, and several regulars look tired. Real, missing Sergio Barroso, Scott Crichton and Joel, welcome back Rıdvan Baran, who spent seven seasons here. The last three meetings produced two draws and an Athletico win. Expect Hüseyin Göktepe's wing play against Baran to be the evening's quiet argument.