Can Leipzig stop the run that keeps beating them?

Three. That is how many times Borussia Dortmund have beaten RB Leipzig in 2063, and it is the number that should hang over Tuesday's Champions League night in Leipzig. In March Dortmund won 1-0 after extra time. In May they won 0-1, Luiz Carlos scoring in the 46th minute. In August it finished 0-0 and Dortmund took it on penalties, 2-3. Leipzig have not scored against them this year.

The two clubs know each other too well for a European night to feel like a break from the league. Dortmund arrive with the better recent form behind them, and Leipzig with the heavier legs. Both expected elevens are close to their usual shapes: Leipzig a 4-3-3 with the defensive midfielder screening, Dortmund a 4-2-3-1 with two holders and Jules Luvovadio behind the striker.

Leipzig's problems are on the right. Jeferson Ortega has a twisted ankle and is not expected back until about 3 December, so Albert Franco is likely to fill the right-wing role, though he is rated at 73% condition and tired. Roberto Robles, Gökhan Kılıç and Jorge Novillo are tired too. Albert Franco is also carrying a pulled groin, which leaves Robert Pladevall's side short of fresh options on that flank.

Dortmund's list is longer. Jacob Fuglevik has a calf strain, Saulius Steponavičius torn wrist ligaments and Heiko Lüllig sprained ankle ligaments, none of them available. Those who are likely to start are not fresh either: Vuk Jovanović and Morad Hattab are tired, Luvovadio is jaded, Ikechukwu Okeke is at 79% condition and tired, Đorđe Petrović is tired, and Sadio Keita is at 82%. A squad that has won ten of fifteen in this shape cannot keep asking the same legs for everything.

The old boy is the story within the story. Morad Hattab played 54 games and scored 16 goals for Leipzig between 2058/59 and 2061/62, and won a trophy there. On Tuesday he is likely to lead the line against them. Leipzig's Timo Froschauer went the other way long ago and barely played, four games and no goals between 2045/46 and 2052/53; his part in this is likely to be smaller.

The wings are where the game will be decided. Marvin Kiala, Dortmund's right winger, has an average rating of 7.32 and has made four clear-cut chances in his last four games; he faces David Acha, 6.79, who tackles well at 17 but gives away pace: Kiala 15 and 18 for acceleration, Acha 13 and 13. On the other side Sadio Keita, 7.53, meets Roberto Robles, 6.58, and has the same kind of edge, 16 and 17 against 13 and 13. Leipzig's counter-argument is Hamza De Groote on the left, 7.07 and sharp in his recent games, against Antonius Maertens at 6.75.

Leipzig's record in their shape is 21 games, twelve wins, three draws and six defeats, 1.86 points a game and 30 goals scored to 19 conceded. Against a 4-2-3-1 they take 1.6 points a game. Dortmund in their shape have 2.27 points a game from fifteen games, 34 goals to 12, and in two games against a 4-3-3 they have won both. Those are habits, not verdicts.

Dortmund's danger is not only Hattab. Andreas Altenhöfer has three goals in his last four games, and Luvovadio arrives with an average of 8.1 across his last three. Leipzig's threat is spread thinner: De Groote has made four clear-cut chances in four games without scoring, and Saúl Arce has made three in three.

Both clubs need the points, and Leipzig need them more after a European week they would rather forget. The crowd will remind Dortmund what happened in May. Dortmund will remind Leipzig what happened in March, May and August. Three times is enough to make a pattern; a fourth would make it a habit Leipzig cannot shake.