Wolves' home habit meets Dortmund's travelling machine

Two points separate third from fourth in the Bundesliga, and the table is lying to somebody. Wolfsburg sit second on 20 points from 11 games, though their chances are worth 17.7, a surplus of 2.3. Dortmund have 19 from 10, against 21.8 expected, a deficit of 2.8. One side has been finishing above its means, the other below its chances. A tight game on Sunday will not settle which, but it will say something about who deserves to be where.

Wolfsburg's home record in their 4-3-3 is 15 games, seven won, four drawn, four lost, 1.67 points a game. Against a 4-2-3-1, the shape Dortmund are expected to use, it is five games, one win, one draw, three defeats, three goals scored and ten conceded, a clear-cut chance against every 38 minutes. Dortmund in their 4-2-3-1 have 14 games, nine won, four drawn, one lost, 2.21 points a game, and a chance against only every 161 minutes. That is the contest in one line: Wolfsburg's usual shape against Dortmund's.

Wolfsburg are without Tolga Bayram, hip, and Gustavo García, hamstring. Faustino Funes, 386 games for Dortmund across a decade, faces his old club at right-back, and Đorđe Petrović, 48 games for Wolfsburg, comes back on the other side. Dortmund lose Luiz Carlos to a twisted ankle. Several starters carry tired legs: Josip Radović, Jules Luvovadio, jaded at 74%, Đorđe Petrović tired, José María at 73%, Dominique Brun at 74%.

The duels are set. José María's acceleration against Petrović's tackling gives the full-back the edge. Raúl López's dribbling against Antonius Maertens gives the defender the edge in pace. Andreas Altenhöfer, quicker than Funes, will test the old boy. Eduardo Giddens has been Wolfsburg's form man, 8.23 across three games; Luvovadio Dortmund's, 8.4 across four. Wolfsburg need the points to hold second; Dortmund, with a game in hand, need them to close. Expect a cagey, close thing.