Can Bilbao's tired legs hold the line against Madrid's surge?
A. Bilbao's derby at home arrives with the squad running on empty and a wounded Madrid eager to close the gap on the leaders.
Why does this derby feel so lopsided on paper yet so uncertain on the pitch? Bilbao sit 13th, with 14 points from 12 games, and their expected points say they should have more. Madrid are seventh on 18, but their underlying numbers scream top four. Both sides are underperforming their chances; only one has the depth to cope.
Bilbao are without goalkeeper Jon Casado, and the fitness list reads like a hospital ward: Imanol Losa and Ignacio Iglesias are running on fumes, and José Mateo is short of sharpness. Madrid miss Sergio Barroso, Scott Crichton and Rıdvan Baran, yet Joel arrives in blistering form, averaging 7.9 across his last four. The duel to watch is Joel against Christian Gurrutxaga, a mismatch on current ratings. Expect Madrid's 4-3-3 to ask questions Bilbao's 4-4-2 cannot answer.