Seven goals, one statistical mismatch

“Seven is a good answer.” Andrei Albeanu’s fictional verdict would fit Feyenoord Rotterdam’s 7-1 win over U Craiova 1948 CS, though the numbers suggest the question was not quite as simple as the score.

Feyenoord had 67 per cent possession, 16 shots and 10 on target across 90 minutes on 15 August. U Craiova managed five shots, two on target and 33 per cent of the ball. The return was seven goals to one; the expected-goals figures were 3.46 to 0.27. Even by the standards of a lopsided evening, the scoreboard took the more generous view of Feyenoord’s finishing.

That is not to say the hosts lacked pressure. They created three clear-cut chances, hit the woodwork once and completed 625 of 685 passes. U Craiova completed 308 of 370, had one corner and created no clear-cut chances. The difference in possession was 34 percentage points; the difference in goals was six. One statistic can describe control. The other tends to end the discussion.

Albeanu was the central figure in both accounts. He scored three and assisted two, with three key passes and six shots, three on target. His 56 completed passes from 65 attempts came with a match rating of 10.0. Feyenoord’s seven goals had plenty of authorship elsewhere, too: Armando Raimundo scored twice and assisted once, while Miguel Núñez and Alberto Navarro each scored and assisted.

Raimundo added three key passes to his two goals and assist, and put three of four shots on target. Núñez had two key passes and two shots on target from three attempts before being replaced in the 74th minute. Navarro also supplied two key passes, completed 72 of 80 passes and covered 13.3 kilometres. The supporting figures were not modest; they were merely outnumbered by Albeanu’s.

At the other end, Alexandru Radu scored U Craiova’s goal. It was the visitors’ only return from two shots on target, against a Feyenoord side that allowed just five attempts in total. Denis Lucică came on at half-time, and Viorel Buzean entered in the 74th minute. Neither change alters the basic arithmetic: U Craiova had a third of the possession and one goal; Feyenoord turned its share into seven.

The 7-1 scoreline is the headline, but the gap between it and the expected-goals total is the sharper footnote. Feyenoord’s 3.46 expected goals point to a strong attacking display, not an ordinary route to seven. The hosts took their chances at a rate the underlying measure does not routinely promise. U Craiova, meanwhile, had little territory and fewer openings, then still found the net.

There were no yellow cards for either side, despite 14 Feyenoord fouls and 10 from U Craiova. On a night with plenty of football and little disciplinary arithmetic, the most exact summary belongs to the player who touched the scoreline five times: Albeanu, 10.0.