Fortuna’s 12-point overachievement has a leaky-defence twist
Fortuna Düsseldorf sit fourth in the Bundesliga, but their chances say sixth after 33 games.
The Bundesliga table puts Fortuna Düsseldorf in fourth place, with 62 points. The chances they have created and allowed tell a less flattering story: 50.0 expected points, good for sixth. The gap is 12 points, and it is not all down to sharp finishing.
Fortuna have scored 53 goals from chances worth 47.9 expected goals, a return 5.1 above expectation. That is useful work. But they have conceded 30 from chances worth 40.4 expected goals. Their opponents have finished 10.4 goals below what those chances suggest they might have scored. Fortuna’s overachievement is built as much on that defensive reprieve as on their own finishing.
The figures land after Friday’s 3-2 derby win away to 1. FC Köln. Our preview last week framed that match as a test of Fortuna’s top-four place. They came through it, and now stand fourth. The result adds a hard edge to a season in which the table has rewarded them far more generously than the chances suggest.
Borussia Dortmund lead the expected-points list on 70.4, despite having 64 actual points. FC Bayern München are second on 67.5 expected and have 78 actual. RB Leipzig sit third on 62.2 expected, with 59 points. Fortuna are sixth on expected points, behind Hamburger SV and VfL Wolfsburg too, yet have surged past all three in the real table.
That is no small return from the work Rolly Essende has overseen since taking charge in 2061. But there is a warning in the numbers. Fortuna cannot assume that opponents will keep wasting chances at this rate. Their 62 points are real; the cushion between those points and the underlying performance is real, too.
Hamburger SV visit on 17 May. Fortuna will go into it fourth, not sixth. The chances say they have had help.