“The gap is 37 points”
Roma host second-placed Juventus on Sunday in a derby of sharply different stakes, with the visitors chasing the summit and the hosts seeking to climb from 10th.
The derby with Juventus is next on Roma’s calendar: after a 1-1 draw at S.S. Lazio on Sunday, they host the Bianconeri on Sunday 4 May. One point separates Roma from another match; 37 separate them from their visitors in the table.
Both are unbeaten in the league since their last defeat, but the scale of the season is unmistakable: Juventus have won 25 of 34, Roma 12. The Bianconeri have 80 points against 78.0 expected, while Roma’s 43 fall short of their 44.3 expected. Roma have scored more than their chances suggest, but conceded more too; Juventus have been marginally more efficient overall.
The December meeting offers Roma no comfort. Juventus won 3-0, with Assaf Kabilo, Acoidán Arbelo and Juan Berenguel scoring before half-time. Luigi Volpe and Íñigo are also listed as tired; Roma have their own fitness questions, including Davide Finardi at 65 per cent condition.
Both sides are expected to use a 4-3-3 DM Wide. Sentiment will have little room once the ball moves. Juventus’ established shape has brought 33 wins in 47 games; Roma have used theirs in six matches, winning three.
Roma need points to improve their position. Juventus need them to keep pressure on the summit. A derby, then, but not an equal contest in the table—and Roma must make it one on the pitch.