Rheinland bragging rights on the line

The Rheinland derby always burns. This one has extra fuel. Fortuna Düsseldorf sit seventh, Köln eleventh. Separated by two points. Both unbeaten in five. Both need the win.

Düsseldorf have 22 points from 14 games. Köln have 20 from 15. The table says Fortuna are ahead. The expected points say otherwise: Köln are seventh by xPoints, Düsseldorf twelfth. The hosts have ridden their luck. They have conceded 12 goals from 18.4 expected. That cannot last forever.

Köln arrive tired. Their expected eleven is running on fumes. Didi Janach, the striker, is at 74% condition. Jurandir, the right midfielder, even worse at 69%. Andrei Arnăut, Alfred Sardá, Paulo César, Ludovic Mercier, Henrik Rasmussen, Tomas Ibáñez, Vladimir Acevedo – all below 80%. The fixture list has not been kind.

Düsseldorf have their own worries. Juan Manuel Cobián, Kenni Nedergaard, Viktor Knakal, Blaž Jandrić, Jorge, George Milner – all tired. The derby will be a test of lungs as much as legs.

Watch the flanks. Viktor Knakal against Andrei Arnăut. Aviad Biton against Paulo César. Biton has created four clear-cut chances in his last five games. Knakal has been quieter but remains a threat. Köln's Jurandir will target Cobián. The Brazilian has pace and dribbling; Cobián has tackling of just 9. That is a mismatch waiting to happen.

In the air, George Milner has the edge over Janach. Milner is 12 centimetres taller, with better jumping reach. Köln may need to go around Düsseldorf, not over them.

The last meeting was ugly for Fortuna. Köln won 4-1 in April. Before that, a 1-1 draw and a 3-2 Düsseldorf win. The derby never follows a script.

Both sides need this. Europe is the prize. Pride is the minimum. The Rheinland will be watching.