Bayern's Tired Legs Meet the Unbeaten Run
Top hosts unbeaten HSV with Bayern's squad running on fumes and Hamburg's 13-game run without defeat on the line.
This one has the smell of an upset. Bayern sit top, but their legs are heavy, and Hamburg come to Munich without a league defeat all season.
Bayern's last five: two wins, two draws, one loss. Their expected points say they should have 29.5, but they have 32. The finishing has been kind, the defending even kinder. Five conceded from 7.6 xG against. That luck cannot hold forever.
The problem is not quality. It is fuel. Niccolò De Giglio is at 73% condition and tired. Emeka Omotayo 68%. Patrick Wolfgang Brunnhübner 66%. Vincenzo Cancelli, Nadin Suller, Leanderson, Sil Vlietstra, Teodoro Brugué—all short of full sharpness. They have played a lot of football, and it shows.
Hamburg are not just unbeaten; they are solid. Thirteen league games, no defeats, 23 points. In-Sung Han has two goals and two assists in his last five. Rafael Vázquez has chipped in from the left. Pavel Kalchev is averaging 7.6 in midfield. Neizan Pestano has been scoring. They will not fear the Allianz.
The last time these two met, Bayern won 2-0 in August. But HSV won at this ground in March, and the October before was a draw. Bayern's record against a 4-4-2 is decent, but Hamburg's record against a 4-2-3-1 is better than Bayern's against a 4-4-2. And Hamburg's expected goals say they are not riding luck: they have 23 points from 24.1 expected. Bayern have 32 from 29.5. The gap is not as big as the table says.
The key duel is on Bayern's right. De Giglio, tired, against Juan Carlos Gatti, who has pace, acceleration and tackling. Gatti has the edge in the tackle. If De Giglio cannot get past him, Bayern's width dies. On the other side, Leanderson against Antonio—Antonio is the weaker full-back, but Leanderson is also tired.
In the air, In-Sung Han against Nadin Suller is no contest. Suller wins that. But Han is not there to win headers; he is there to score goals. And Hamburg will create chances. Bayern's clear-cut chance record against a 4-4-2 is one every 54 minutes, but Hamburg's against a 4-2-3-1 is one every 36. That is a worrying number for the home side.
Bayern need the points to stay top. Hamburg need them to keep the chase alive. Both have players missing. José Luís Hernández and Markus Hüsing are out for Bayern, Daniel Corgozinho for Hamburg. But Hamburg's absentees hurt less. Their spine—Kalchev, Opeyemi, Galbraith, Birkmann—is intact.
The crowd will be loud. The stakes are high. And Bayern's tired legs might just cost them their first home defeat of the season. Hamburg have not lost in 13. They will not want to start now.